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The Practical side of Coronavirus

Are you in fear or, worried with the increasing no of COVID cases in last 10 days? That's normal. Most of us are. This is because we generally see a fragment and derive conclusion instead of analyzing the complete picture.

The no of cases in India is roughly around 80k including 2500 deaths. 10 days ago, it was 40k cases. On an average cases have increased from 2000 cases per day to 4000 cases per day. So, cases are increasing very rapidly , right?. Yes it is true but it's not the complete picture. Actually, the no of tests have increased drastically. Say if there were 10k tests performed per day 10 days back, today around 1lac tests are done daily and so is the increase in the no of cases. This fact is not discussed anywhere on TV, or in media. So actually neither the cases are increasing not the virus is spreading the way it looks like.

Let's do a simple math. If out of 10 lac tests, 40k positive cases were there and after 20 lac tests 80k cases are there that is roughly 4 percent.

Actual no of cases=4%*130 Cr=5.2 Cr~5 Crore

But this calculation is also not correct since there are a no of regions that have rare or no cases at all. Let's eliminate the rural india then, say 80%.

Now, actual no of cases-1 Cr

So, this is probably the actual no of cases in India if proper amount of tests have been done based on  statistics. Also, there is no guaranteed way to stop this spread and multiply it to get to 2 Cr, 5 Cr or even 10 Crores.

Good News.
We have achieved "Herd Immunity". Herd immunity is basically the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high population of individuals are immune to the disease.


Second relief being that the death rate is lowest in India in the entire world.

We will talk more about herd immunity and why the death rate is lowest in India in the upcoming blog.

Do let me know your perspective on the problem. Also, what other subjects should I talk about in the upcoming blogs.

Till then, Stay safe. Stay healthy and happy!

Comments

  1. UnknownMay 19, 2020 at 7:18 AM

    If we go acc to this then also 1 cr. Is a lot more number and is considerably risky and a thing worrying about . Till we are got gettinf any vaccine for it , having fear of getting COVID will always be there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Shekhar's ArenaMay 20, 2020 at 5:54 AM

      That's true. But still being aware is better than being worried.

      Delete
  2. NeelanjayMay 19, 2020 at 9:20 AM

    The issue with Indians is not the spread of Corona but rather is the spread of fake news
    I think you should cover this fake news propaganda on WhatsApp in your next blog

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Shekhar's ArenaMay 20, 2020 at 5:55 AM

      This was already discussed in a previous blog. Read that one.

      Delete
  3. UnknownMay 19, 2020 at 11:29 AM

    This was informative ! And, actually what the country needs to know for now and keep calm & attentive to the scenario going on .

    ReplyDelete
  4. Nishant Singh UjjainMay 25, 2020 at 6:19 AM

    Same assumption & thoughts in my mind also... Only thing we need to do is taking precautions, maintaing hygiene & habit of wearing mask while going anywhere till vaccine comes.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I love petsJune 9, 2020 at 7:36 AM

    Nicee ... Writing

    ReplyDelete

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